Futures Thinking @ RTL

Futures thinking is an analytical, creative, and collaborative exploration of how the future might be different. Futures thinking often targets a 10-year time horizon, a timeframe in which a number of transformational changes might happen. This timeframe also provides sufficient lead time for us to mitigate threats, maximize opportunities, and otherwise help build our desired future, starting today.

Futures thinking is not a prediction. We consider many possible scenarios. It is also not merely an extrapolation of today’s trends. In fact, we often consider small “signals of change” that might lead to unexpected and surprising futures. This approach is encapsulated in the following quote from professional futurist Jim Dator: “Any useful statement about the future should at first seem ridiculous.”

Futures thinking helps us consider more imaginatively, systematically, and strategically all the ways in which the future may be different. In addition to gaining insight into possible futures, we develop a sense of agency around a future in which we can participate and help build. By stepping outside the here and now, we exercise and develop our creative muscles and discover new insights and strategies to consider. Having entertained a wide range of potential outcomes, we are also better prepared for and more resilient in the face of new risks and unexpected changes.

Science fiction author William Gibson is famously quoted as saying “The future is already here–it’s just not evenly distributed.” Professional futurists often start their work by looking for examples of the future that is here today, calling these examples “signals of change.” Futurists also look at “drivers of change,” which are the long-term trends likely to have significant impact on the future.

Futurists use signals and drivers to assemble possible future scenarios, often following divergent trajectories (growth, constraint, collapse, transformation) and associated ramifications. These scenarios, in turn, help individuals and organizations in their strategic planning and decision making as they seek to build desirable futures by mitigating risks and maximizing opportunities.

Futures thinking requires strong analytical skills (data collection and analysis), creativity (imagination and storytelling), and deep empathy (to fully explore unfamiliar scenarios). Futures thinking also benefits from collaboration with diverse stakeholders, who bring different perspectives, help challenge accepted norms, and develop new insights.

Who: Shawna Dark, Owen McGrath, Chris Hoffman, Sand Rogers, Noah Wittman, John Lowe, Joseph Kearns

What we do: Enroll in Coursera Certificate Programs, Read & discuss futures thinking books, Meet monthly to share insights/signals with each other, Support RTL strategic planning projects

Contact: Noah Wittman, wittman@berkeley.edu